Can you believe we're already halfway through 2025?

As we move into the second half of the year, buyers and sellers across Tampa Bay are asking the same question: What's next for the housing market?

While no forecast is ever guaranteed, updated mid-year projections from leading housing economists—Fannie Mae, Zillow, NAR, MBA, and others—are giving us a clearer picture of what may lie ahead when it comes to home prices, mortgage rates, and market activity.

Here's a breakdown of what the experts are saying—and how it relates to what we're seeing right here in the Tampa Bay market.

Home Price Forecasts

Most economists agree: home prices nationwide are expected to rise modestly through the rest of 2025. But the story is more nuanced in certain areas—especially in Florida.

Here are the latest price projections:

• Cotality: +4.3% (April 2025 to April 2026)

• Fannie Mae: +4.1% in 2025

• Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES): +3.3%

• NAR: +3% in 2025; +4% in 2026

• MBA: +1.3% in 2025; less than 1% in 2026

• Zillow: -1.4%, up from its previous estimate of -1.9%

Some of the steeper price corrections are happening in previously overheated markets like Florida, Texas, and Hawaii.

What about here in Tampa Bay?
Locally, we're seeing a bit of a mixed bag depending on price point and neighborhood. Entry-level homes under $400,000 continue to move fairly well, especially in high-demand communities like Riverview, Wesley Chapel, and Apollo Beach. However, the $500,000–$700,000 range has seen more stagnation unless the home is priced sharply or offers standout features like waterfront views, a pool, or extensive upgrades. Homes that are lingering tend to be those that haven't adjusted price-wise to the competitive inventory environment.

Existing Home Sales Outlook

Sales activity is slowly rebounding, but it's not a dramatic comeback. Many buyers are adjusting to higher interest rates, while others remain on the sidelines waiting for affordability to improve.

Here's what economists are projecting for 2025:

• NAR: +6% this year, with 11% growth expected in 2026

• Fannie Mae: +4.4% (4.24 million home sales)

• MBA: 4.3 million home sales

• Zillow: +1.4% (4.12 million home sales)

Locally in Tampa Bay:
We've seen a slight uptick in new listings, which is helping to create more opportunity for buyers. But inventory is still nowhere near pre-pandemic levels. Days on market have lengthened in many areas, especially for homes that are not aggressively priced or presented well. Some sellers are choosing to offer concessions or rate buydowns to sweeten the deal—strategies that are becoming increasingly effective in this environment.

Mortgage Rate Predictions

If you're waiting for mortgage rates to dip below 5%, it may be a long wait. However, experts are still predicting slow, gradual improvement as inflation cools and the Fed eyes potential rate cuts later this year.

Here's what we're hearing:

• MBA: 6.6% average in Q4 2025; down to 6.3% by end of 2026

• NAR: 6.4% in late 2025; 6.1% in 2026

• Fannie Mae: 6.1% by year-end; 5.8% in 2026

NAR's Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently called mortgage rates the "magic bullet" for market momentum. Lower rates could motivate many sidelined buyers—especially first-timers—to jump back into the market.

In Tampa Bay:
Buyer activity continues, but most shoppers are adjusting their expectations based on today's rates. Those who are serious are working closely with lenders to explore strategies like temporary buydowns or creative loan products to offset higher monthly payments. The demand is still there—it just requires more planning and flexibility.

What This Means for You

The big takeaway for Tampa Bay buyers, sellers, and homeowners?

Recovery is happening, but slowly. Most experts are calling for modest growth in home values and a gradual increase in transaction volume through the end of 2025, with more traction expected in 2026.

That means realistic pricing, smart negotiation, and strong marketing are more important than ever—especially in a competitive and inventory-sensitive market like ours.

And remember, national headlines never tell the full story. Tampa Bay's neighborhoods, price points, and buyer pools all behave differently. What's happening in one ZIP code or subdivision can look totally different from another just a few miles away.

Curious how these trends are affecting your home or plans?
Let's talk. I'm happy to give you a hyperlocal update on what's happening right now in your neighborhood and what to expect this summer and fall.